Population growth will help propel Australia to become the world's 11th biggest economy within a decade, a report predicts.
The London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research is forecasting Australia will climb two places on its world economic league table by 2026 from its current ranking of 13.Countries that depend on brainpower to drive their economies will generally overtake those dependant on natural resources, with China tipped to replace the US as the world's biggest economy in 2030, the centre says.
While Australia's economic growth has been fuelled by resources in recent years, the centre also noted that it's become one of the most popular countries in the world for inward migration.And it's particularly Australia's intake of migrants with highly sought-after skills that will help fuel its future growth.
"The growing population means the economy is forecast to rise from 13th largest in 2017 to 11th largest economy in 2026," the centre's 2018 World Economic League Table said."Investment in urban infrastructure will need to accelerate as population increases."
Australia took in just under 190,000 permanent migrants during the 2015-2016 financial year, the majority of whom were skilled.Some, however, believe we should trim our intake.
A survey published by the Australian Population Research Institute in October found three quarters of Australians believe the country doesn't need any more people and nearly half support a partial ban on Muslims migrants.The institute said at the time it believed the results were driven by the impact of population growth on people's quality of life and the rapid change in Australia's ethnic and religious make-up.
But the Centre for Economics and Business Research's report says that with the digital revolution set to power the world economy through to 2032, countries will need creative workers and one of the best ways to get them is through migration.It also predicts energy prices will fall in the next 25 years amid a substantial rise in the use of renewables for power generation and growth of energy supplies from fracking.
Resource-rich economies that fail to diversify risk having their economic growth impeded, the centre warned.Meanwhile some of Australia's closest neighbours are expected to enjoy booms, with the centre forecasting the economic rise of developing countries.
Indonesia and Korea are expected to enter the top 10 of the world's biggest economies by 2032, with Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines all on track to enter the top 25."By 2030 three of the world's top four economies will be Asian (China, India and Japan)," the centre said.
December 28, 2017
Belinda Tasker
(Australian Associated Press)
Posted in:News |
Resource stocks are tipped to be among the best performing Australian investments in the new year, while residential property loses favour.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will continue to be popular, while it's anyone's guess what will happen with cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, a topic that has spread from tech geek land to mainstream barbecue fodder.Resource companies were the big winners in 2017 on the back of an upswing in prices for commodities iron ore, coal and petroleum.
Global resources giant BHP Billiton posted a full-year profit of $US5.89 billion ($A7.42 billion) in 2017, compared with a $US6.4 billion loss a year earlier, and trebled its final dividend.Its rival Rio Tinto almost doubled its half-year net profit to $US3.3 billion, and paid shareholders a record interim dividend.
The world's second-biggest iron ore exporter is expected to reveal its full-year results in February.Citi equity strategist Tony Brennan forecasts the local share market will reach 6,400 points by the end of next year, producing a double-digit return with yield, concentrated in the resources sector.
"Even after earlier upgrades, we continue to estimate that spot commodity prices, if they persist, could lift FY18 market earnings forecasts another five per cent," he said."While there could be more slippage elsewhere, the improving economy yet still low labour cost rises should limit downside risks."
CMC Markets chief markets strategist Michael McCarthy also sees investors tilting their portfolios towards more mining and energy stocks.He says Australian investors still have a heavy bias towards residential property but will likely move away from that area in 2018 in response to tougher lending restrictions.
"We will probably see a trend away from that over the course of 2018 as higher costs imposed by regulation and risks for the market as interest rates rise start to weigh on investors' minds," Mr McCarthy said.Local investors were also increasingly boosting their international exposure either via direct shares or ETFs and would continue the trend next year, he said.
ETFs are investment funds traded on an exchange, like the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and typically track a specified benchmark index, exposing investors to a diversified range of assets at a relatively low cost.Assets under management in the Australian ETFs market have more than tripled over the past four years to around $25 billion, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Cryptocurrencies have been in the world spotlight this year, with bitcoin's value soaring from around $US800 at the start of 2017 to more than $US17,000.Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe on Wednesday labelled bitcoin a "speculative mania," mostly attractive to criminals and speculators, while US financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, has urged investors to exercise extreme caution.
Mr McCarthy said price fluctuations in cryptocurrencies means they should only be considered by sophisticated investors with a high tolerance for risk."The outlook for cryptocurrencies is binary; they are either going to succeed spectacularly or they are going to fail," he said.
"Nobody knows exactly how that is going to pan out."Posted in:News |
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Legislation allowing first-home buyers to save for a deposit through their superannuation has cleared the Senate.
The coalition used the support of the cross bench to pass the measure from the May budget through the Senate on Tuesday.People buying their first home will be able to make pre-tax super contributions of up to $30,000 which can later be withdrawn and used for a home deposit.
The legislation also allows older Australians to contribute the proceeds of the sale of their family home to their super.The government supported Liberal Democrats senator David Leyonhjelm's amendments which will extend the measure to people who have fallen on financial hardship.
Under Senator Leyonhjelm's additions to the bill, the scheme will also be reviewed after 18 months of becoming law.The opposition and the Greens are against the changes, with Labor senator Doug Cameron arguing the first-home buyers scheme will do nothing to address housing affordability.
"Instead, it will undermine Australia's world-class superannuation system," Senator Cameron told parliament.But government frontbencher Zed Seselja said it is a well-calibrated scheme, giving people a tax break which would help them get an important asset.
He believes it won't cause sudden inflation like other incentive programs which give out lump sums.The youngest person elected to the upper house, Greens senator Jordon Steele-John, 23, warned if more wasn't done to fix house prices a generation would be lost.
"My generation stands on the precipice of being the first in Australian history to have a lower quality of life than those that came before," Senator Steele-John said.One Nation supported the bill, but leader Pauline Hanson said housing affordability could also be aided by curbing immigration levels.
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Simone Ziaziaris
(Australian Associated Press)
The International Monetary Fund says any pickup in Australian economic growth is likely to be "modest" and has dimmed hopes for stronger wage growth.
The IMF's preliminary annual report on the Australian economy says global growth, low local unemployment and new infrastructure projects more than offset declining housing investment.
But any pickup will be modest until the economy has been operating at full employment for some time.
The Washington-based institution praised Australia's continued recovery under the transition from the mining boom despite setbacks, citing strengthened domestic demand and employment growth since the beginning of the year.
"But labor market slack remains present and wage growth has remained weak," the IMF said in a concluding statement on Monday.
It said Australia will need interest rates to remain low in order to achieve full employment.
"Securing the return to full employment and inflation objectives durably will require continued macroeconomic policy support," the IMF said, adding low wage growth has continued to weigh on household consumption.
The local housing market is expected to cool but affordability issues and household debt vulnerabilities are unlikely to be corrected soon, it said.
Driving the cooling down is the expectation that the building completion rate will catch up with demand in major eastern capital regions.
But given continued strong population growth and foreign buyer interest, the IMF expects demand growth for housing to remain robust and said prices should stabilise rather than fall significantly.
IMF mission chief Thomas Helbling told a briefing in Sydney that supply-side policies will be needed for a longer-term balance in the housing market.
"In an economy like Australia where much of the growth is housing, it is also about a balance of supply and providing an affordable space for urban areas to develop," Mr Helbling said.
The IMF also cited Australia's"notable" infrastructure gap compared to other advanced economies and said more government spending on infrastructure particularly roads, ports and public transport will be crucial for future growth.
"While the recent boost has helped to narrow the gap, it might not be enough to close it," the IMF said.
"Further increases in investment have the potential to improve physical and digital interconnectivity, both internally and with Australia's trading partners, thereby contributing to higher growth."
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